Pink Nookie Data Tells A Story

We've got a solid foundation. But our real opportunity isn't in getting more customers, it's in keeping the ones we have. More on that in a sec.

Our revenue is heavily concentrated in the top tier. Losing even 5% of high-value customers means losing over $69K annually. Meanwhile, converting 10% of low-value customers to medium-value customers would add $140K+. Strategy should focus on protecting high-value relationships while systematically moving customers up the value ladder.

Volume: Facebook is generating 2x more purchases (12,840 vs 6,319) and 3.2x more revenue ($1.08M vs $335K). It's our volume player.

Efficiency: Google is 2x more efficient per purchase ($8.73 vs $17.67 cost). Google's ROAS is also better (6.07x vs 4.77x).

The Real Issue: Facebook customers have a 15% repeat rate. Google customers have a 30% repeat rate. We're spending 4.1x more on Facebook ($226K vs $55K) to get customers who are half as loyal. That's the problem.

Bottom line: Facebook isn't "draining our account." It's generating $1.08M in revenue. But every dollar spent on Facebook returns less long-term value than Google because those customers don't come back as often.

Facebook looks cheaper upfront than Google. But Facebook customers repeat at only 15% vs Google at 30%. We're spending 2.3x more on Facebook to get customers who are 50% less valuable. The math doesn't work at scale. Our best channel by far is Direct/Organic at 53% repeat rate.

Facebook isn't "draining our account." It's generating $1.08M in revenue. But every dollar spent on Facebook returns less long-term value than Google because those customers don't come back as often.

November 2024 was exceptional at 1,665% ROAS. But December 2024 dropped to just 113% ROAS. Since then, Google performance has been declining.

May 2025 hit rock bottom at 200% ROAS. September and October 2025 are back to only 294% and 520% ROAS respectively.

This correlates directly with our overall sales decline. Our best month (November 2024) had the best ad performance. Our worst months (September and October 2025) have the weakest ad returns. This isn't just a retention problem. Our acquisition efficiency is declining too.

We peaked in November 2024 (holiday season). Since then, sales have been trending downward with some recovery in July and August. September and October 2025 are concerning because they're our weakest months on record.

This is exactly why retention matters right now. We need to get that September baseline back up before the next holiday season. Retention campaigns could bridge this gap while we optimize our ad spend.

We have 7,485 customers who haven't bought in 2025 (out of 11,935 lifetime customers).

Of those, 5,350 aren't on email and 7,506 aren't on SMS.

These people can only be reached through paid ads. That's why we're spending $4,200/month on retargeting. It's not that ads are expensive. It's that our organic retention channels have huge gaps.

Our ad spend isn't the problem. Our retention infrastructure needs a massive overhaul. We're paying $4,200/month to retarget because our organic channels can't reach 6,000+ customers. Everything can improve with a coordinated strategy. Fix the infrastructure (email, SMS, loyalty programs, referrals) and we can either reduce ad spend significantly or reallocate it to pure acquisition at lower cost. That's where the real opportunity is.

A simple email campaign: "We miss you - here's 10% off your next order."

Expected conversion: 5-10% of those one-time buyers re-engaging and making a second purchase.

That's 310-617 repeat purchases that wouldn't have happened otherwise, generating new revenue and starting customers in the repeat cycle.

This is significantly more efficient than acquisition channels because we already have their attention and trust. They just need a reason to come back.

Top three products (Honey Body Wash, Nookie Cleanser, Nookie Glaze) account for 50,562 orders and drive 44-49% repeat rates. These are our replenishment heroes.

Bundle opportunity: Customers who buy these core products together see significantly higher LTV. Strategy should emphasize multi-product purchases.

Lower repeat rate products (Nookie Defense at 10.9%, mini variants at 19-20%) may need repositioning. Test bundling them with heroes or adjusting messaging.

Discounts work, but aren't the only lever. 53.5% of customers use them, but 46.5% don't. This means your brand has pull beyond price.

Payment flexibility matters more than you think. $265K in revenue comes from customers financing purchases. Remove installment options and you lose this segment entirely.

Your operational excellence is an asset. 98.6% fulfillment rate and 0.96% refunds mean customers get what they ordered, when promised. This builds repeat purchase confidence.

Your "new customer" count is inflated by 526 people. That's 7% of your customer base that doesn't actually exist—they're duplicates.

Your real CAC (cost to acquire a customer) is higher than you think. When you remove the fraudulent accounts, your actual acquisition efficiency declines because you're spreading those discount costs across fewer legitimate customers.

The Indianapolis concentration suggests organized abuse, not random fraud. 315 fraudsters out of 483 is one geographic ring systematically exploiting your first-time buyer incentive.

1. Audit First-Time Buyer Data: Remove the 526 fraudulent accounts from your "new customer" metrics. Your real first-time buyer baseline is 7% lower than reported.

2. Tighten Discount Logic: Require phone verification or billing/shipping address match for first-time buyer codes. The Indianapolis ring proves email-only verification isn't enough.

3. Monitor by Geography: Flag new Indianapolis orders for fraud review. 65% concentration suggests this is systematic, not random.

Google Ads: 6.07x ROAS, $8.73 CPA, 30% repeat rate — This is exceptional performance. Most brands pray for this.

Facebook Ads: 4.77x ROAS, $17.67 CPA, 15% repeat rate — Also working. Lower repeat rate is the issue, not the acquisition itself.

Direct/Organic: 53% repeat rate — Your BEST channel performs this way because those customers have already discovered you organically.

Retargeting repeat customers is 2x more efficient than pure new acquisition—these customers are proven buyers who just need a reason to return.

Stop treating acquisition and retention as opposing forces. They're symbiotic. Your ads are working. Your retention infrastructure is failing.

Fix the backend (email, SMS, loyalty), and your acquisition efficiency automatically improves because new customers understand there's a reason to come back.

The math is simple: improve one-time buyer repeat rate from 46.5% to 60%, and you've added $150-250K in annual revenue without spending more on ads.

Today's Spend:
Google: $42K | Facebook: $119K | Retargeting Ads: $4,200/month | Total: ~$162K/year

Proposed Spend:
Google: $75K (+$33K) | Facebook: $70K (-$49K) | TikTok: $25K (new) | Email/SMS Retention: $50K (new) | Blog/Content: $15K (new) | Total: ~$235K/year

Net Change: +$73K investment, but reallocated from low-efficiency channels to proven + retention infrastructure. Expected ROI: +$150-250K in annual revenue from improved repeat rates alone.

Ad Spend: $6,657.57 | Revenue: $16,139 | CAC: $32-34

Of 198 ad-attributed purchases: 73 new customers ($5,609) + 125 returning customers ($10,530). The issue isn't ad cost—it's retention infrastructure.

37% of returning customers needed paid ads to come back because our email/SMS channels aren't strong enough. We're spending $4,200/month retargeting because we haven't built organic retention.

Fix the backend (email, SMS, loyalty), and acquisition automatically becomes more efficient.

Target Smart: Retarget the 7,485 lapsed customers (haven't bought in 2025) and especially the 5,350 not on email + 7,506 not on SMS. These people can only be reached by ads.

Stop Wasting Money: Don't retarget someone who bought in the last 30 days, buys monthly like clockwork, or is actively engaging with email/SMS. They'll buy anyway.

Own the Funnel: Build email/SMS infrastructure so fewer customers need ads to come back. This changes your CAC economics.

Scale Winners: Double down on winning products (Nookie Glaze, Cleanser) and winning creatives. Let data drive spend allocation.

30 Days: Email retention campaign shows 5-10% conversion. Google campaigns live and generating $4-6 ROAS. Creative assets ready for testing.

90 Days: Facebook campaigns optimized. Lapsed customer CAC validated. Blog articles beginning to rank. One-time buyer repeat rate improves to 55%+.

6 Months: Full channel optimization complete. Ad CAC down 15-25%. Repeat customer rate up to 60%+. Revenue impact: +$150-250K annually from retention improvements alone.

You've built a $3.35M business. That's real. But you're leaving serious money on the table by treating acquisition like it's your only play.

Your best customers are already yours. You just need to remind them why they liked you in the first place.

A small shift from "get new customers" to "keep the ones you have" could add $150-250K to your bottom line this year. No new products. No major campaigns. Just smart strategy.